The Texas electric grid will have less cushion than expected next summer, increasing the risk of blackouts during the hottest days, grid operators cautioned in a long-term study released Monday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas now projects that the margin of capacity over projected peak demand will fall slightly below the 13.75 percent it prefers as it tries to prevent rolling blackouts. ERCOT operates most of the state grid.

The latest report anticipates that electricity generators will be able to produce 74,633 megawatts of power next summer, while the expected electric use peak will be 65,952 megawatts. That’s a 13.2 percent margin.

In emergency situations where there isn’t enough generation to meet demand for electricity, ERCOT orders utilities, including San Antonio’s CPS Energy, to curtail generation, which results in rolling blackouts.