Texas could face power shortages as soon as next year as aging plants are mothballed in response to new environmental standards, according to the state’s grid operator and the organization that monitors the U.S. power grids for the federal government.

In separate reports released days apart, both organizations determined that Texas will soon have an inadequate supply of backup power during periods of peak demand. The shrinking power reserves increase the chances of rolling blackouts if a major power plant goes offline on a very hot or cold day, when power use is greatest.

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