That’s the word from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas — the organization that operates the state’s primary power grid — which released on Monday twin reports that describe the future of Texas power reserves.
Major findings included ERCOT’s projection that the state will have more than 77,000 megawatts of generation resources available this summer. That should be enough to serve the estimated 68,000 MW of peak demand over that same period.
One megawatt is enough electricity to serve about 200 homes on a hot summer afternoon.
Looking further into the future, ERCOT projects an 18.5 percent reserve margin in 2017, a 21.4 percent margin in 2018 and then a 10.4 percent in 2025. Those percentages represent proportions of available generation over projected peak demand.
“We continue to monitor potential impacts of various environmental regulations and other factors on the future generation resource outlook,” said ERCOT Director of System Planning Warren Lasher.
The conclusions of the twin technical reports — the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy report and the Capacity, Demand and Reserves report — come as good news for consumers because healthy energy reserves reduce the likelihood of blackouts. Healthy reserves also tend to discourage expensive price spikes in the wholesale energy market.
The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy report assumes milder summer weather than ERCOT earlier projected in a report released two months ago. ERCOT also now projects more generation resources than it had previously.
Separately, the Capacity, Demand and Reserves analysis (a 10-year forward analysis) predicts more than 4,500 MW of generation additions in the coming years, including 2,600 MW of new natural gas-fired plants.
An ERCOT press release summarizing both reports can be found here.